Hiked the John Muir Trail in 2018 and again last summer

The difference in trail conditions is wild. In 2018, most creek crossings were easy rock hops, but this year half of them were waist-deep because snowmelt started way earlier. Has anyone else noticed the same shift on long routes out west over the last 5 years?

3 comments

3 Comments

wesleyflores3d ago

...so my buddy Jeff did the Wonderland Trail last July and said the same thing. He was expecting those little scenic creek steps from old trip reports, but instead he nearly got swept off his feet at Tahoma Creek trying to cross it midday. He told me the ranger station flat out warned him that the typical snowmelt timeline was two weeks earlier than the trail maps showed.

the_alice2d ago

That's the exact question I keep coming back to after reading about your JMT experience and what Julia and Wesley are saying. Walker.julia, you mentioned the neighbor saying the snowpack is melting almost a month sooner - that is a massive shift that should be making headlines but somehow isn't. When I did the Rae Lakes Loop in 2016, we had to posthole through deep snow at Glen Pass even in late July. Last summer a friend did the same loop and said there was barely any snow up there, just dry rock and dust. So my pointed question is this: have any of you gone back to look at the actual snowfall data from those years compared to now? Not just guessing, I mean pulling up the NRCS snowpack numbers online. Because I swear every time I check those charts it shows the peak accumulation happening earlier and then the melt curve just tanks in April instead of May or June. And I'm wondering if we're all seeing the same pattern in the numbers or if it's more of a localized, trail-to-trail kind of thing.

walker.julia3d ago

Noticed the exact same thing on the PCT section hikes I've been doing. Back in 2019, I could cross most streams without getting my boots wet. Now I'm bringing dry bags and changing into water shoes because the flow is just way stronger and earlier. It's not just trails either, I've seen it in my own backyard with our local creek flooding earlier every spring. The neighbor who's lived here 40 years says the snowpack is melting almost a month sooner than when he moved in. Feels like everything's shifting and nobody's really talking about how fast it's actually happening on the ground.