Showerthought: A buddy pointed out my post predictions were all vague and I had no receipts

Last month I was bragging in the local gaming forum about how I called a server merge months before it happened. Some guy named Dave replied with a screenshot of my original post and highlighted where I said "maybe" and "could happen eventually." He was right, I didn't actually predict anything. I just made a lucky guess based on player complaints that everyone already knew. Now I go back and check the exact wording and context of old posts before I claim I saw it coming. Makes me wonder how many other "prophets" in this community are just doing the same thing with fuzzy memories. Has anyone else fact-checked their own old posts and felt like a total fraud?

3 comments

3 Comments

stella_scott961d ago

I heard a podcast once where a psychologist called this "hindsight bias" and explained how our brains naturally rewrite memories to make us look smarter. I caught myself doing it with a game update prediction last week. Thought I had nailed the exact release date, but going back I saw I actually said "sometime in 2023" when it dropped in 2025. That feeling of being a fraud is real, but at least now I double check before bragging. Dave did you a favor honestly, even if it stung at the time.

morganmartinez1d agoMost Upvoted

Oh man, I did the exact same thing with weather forecasts last month!

cameron_hernandez691d ago

Stella_scott96 nailed it with that hindsight bias thing. Did the same thing with a patch date last year, swore up and down I called it, but my original post said "maybe next summer" and it dropped in fall. Dave definitely did you a favor, even if it stung at the time.