Question about a 12 point dip in a poll after the debate in Austin

I pulled the county numbers for Travis County before and after the debate in Austin and saw a 12 point swing over 9 days that the news kept calling a tie. The weird part is the sample size in that county was tiny, like 180 people, so a handful of responses moved the whole line. How do you all figure out when a gap like that is real signal and not just noise from a small poll?

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