Talking to a farmer in Nebraska changed how I see AI weather models

Met a guy named Pete at a rest stop outside Lincoln last week. He said those new AI weather forecasting tools predicted a frost 3 days before the old models even caught wind of it, saved his whole soybean crop. Made me realize how some folks out in the sticks are using this tech in ways city people never think about. Any of you run into real-world uses like that off the beaten path?

4 comments

4 Comments

logan_wood18h ago

Yeah that "don't those old models usually get it right" bit is something I used to say too, honestly. I was totally that person who figured the old weather models were tried and tested, so why mess with them. But then I read about how these AI models can pick up on tiny patterns in the data that the old ones just miss, like that frost example with the farmer. It's not that the old ones are wrong all the time, it's that the new ones catch things earlier and more specific to small areas. I mean, it's kind of like using a magnifying glass versus binoculars - both work, but for different things. So yeah, I changed my mind on this one, at least for stuff like farming where a few days warning is everything.

hannahcraig14h ago

Oh man, @fiona_hunt71 that's a totally fair point, I feel you on trusting the stuff that's been around forever over the shiny new thing. It's rough when the tech makes a call that costs someone their crop, no doubt.

karen_carter22h ago

Don't those old models usually get it right more often than the new ones though?

fiona_hunt7114h ago

63% of the time those old models are more accurate across the whole Midwest, according to a study from the University of Nebraska actually. I talked to a meteorologist in Des Moines last month who said the AI models are great for hyperlocal stuff but they miss the big picture patterns way more often. That farmer got lucky his frost fell in the AI's sweet spot, but what about the guy in Kansas who lost his wheat because the AI said clear skies and a surprise hailstorm rolled in? The old models aren't perfect but they've been refined over 50 years, not 5 years. I'll take the tried and tested over the shiny new toy every time.